Allstar banner will release on Saturday.
2021.10.27 02:40 Scout_the_turtle Allstar banner will release on Saturday.
At least Omega Shenron is today.
submitted by Scout_the_turtle to DragonballLegends [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 GothicKrypton How do automate device volume based on location? NO ROOT!
I want my device to go to silent or DND mode with Vibration when I'm at a certain location and go to ringer when I'm not in that location anymore .
Can anyone help me with node flow?
submitted by GothicKrypton to AutomateUser [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 typoscript Cyclone Slayer 2h - looking for advice to improve build!
alright, so here's what I'm working with! just respeced to sword, I had 160k dps as axe but for some reason this somehow feels slower to kill (?)
I'm obviously on my way to 6L chest or sword and 20/20 cyclone+support but idk where to focus otherwise. Thanks for any advice!
submitted by typoscript to PathOfExileBuilds [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 DragonfruitExternal4 Batman fanart made by me [ig- arts_of_aryan]
2021.10.27 02:40 showtunie made a billboard welcoming you to town on my huge WIP island!
2021.10.27 02:40 Professor_Earth The Truth About Freemasonry: All astro-nots, Presidents, and so on, are Freemasons. Secret societies run the world.
2021.10.27 02:40 Horror-Assistance-14 [For Hire] Robinson the Homework Magician
Hello, I’m Robin, an organized and driven scholar with exceptional writing, editing, and research skills. As a professionally established tutor, I write papers and articles based on original research. If you need to whip up an essay, term paper, dissertation, article review, statistical work or generally your coursework, I’m your go-to guy. My DM is open or just email me at email@example.com
submitted by Horror-Assistance-14 to Jobs4Bitcoin [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 Practical-Doughnut86 Christianity
My grandma is a diehard “Christian” but like….. she isn’t that great of a person to be completely honest. I mean I love her because she is my grandma but she can be pretty toxic. One scenario… so the other day we were talking about going to a relatives (let’s call her Vee) baby shower the next day. She says “well Vee is not the most beautiful person so I hope the baby looks like the dad”. Now this isn’t like the most horrible thing in the world but it’s pretty hateful for a woman that claims to be such a great Christian. She literally lectures me about my tattoos and how I’ll go to hell but sis, you’ll probably be right there with me. I mean seriously people really feel that they are better than other people because they go to church for an hour every Sunday. What about your character? Are you a good person? I see you’ve cut out alcohol but you willingly gossip about everyone around you???
For this reason, I am starting to question religion all together. She keeps insisting that I come to church with her but I have no interest at all because I see how pointless it can be, she has been going every Sunday for yearssssssss yet is still a nasty person.
submitted by Practical-Doughnut86 to RandomThoughts [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 Derpmeister_ funny
Shortly after asking why melee weapons were blacklisted northwood added a candy which turns you into a creature with melee attacks which can deal damage to all but your team
submitted by Derpmeister_ to SCPSecretLab [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 IncZio Old Spanish Love songs | Canciones Viejitas pero Bonitas y Románticas
submitted by IncZio to spotify [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 Substantial_Slice576 Ufos
Anyone else having trouble seeing the ufos? I see then but my friend in the same lobby doesnt
submitted by Substantial_Slice576 to GTA5Online [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 wawmm Board Games this Sun afternoon
Hosting a board games afternoon at a condo lounge in SOMA next Sunday (8 nov) - putting it out here in case anyone is keen to join! I have Avalon, Seven Wonders, and Coup
submitted by wawmm to friendsinsf [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 newsdk Thisted Kommune skal være økologisk: - Det er ikke nok med flotte visioner
submitted by newsdk to newsdk [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 niuz-bot Alba: Una dintre victimele accidentului de pe DN 1 a murit - [Regionale]
Citeste in continuare: https://www.agerpres.ro/eveniment/2021/10/27/alba-una-dintre-victimele-accidentului-de-pe-dn-1-a-murit--803622
submitted by niuz-bot to niuz [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 juststartedusingredd Can i get some YATTA!??
2021.10.27 02:40 paarthh07 Ngl i think borts girl more loyal than mellys girl
submitted by paarthh07 to YNWMelly [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 newsdk Plads til erhverv og landbrug, men ikke til møller
2021.10.27 02:40 baelbd Mental Health Campus
Hi all. I've been having a conflict with my parents. They sent me this article out of concern.
I'm looking for places to live around here, and they're concerned about this mental health facility being built in the area.
I countered that there's mental health facilities all over across many cities, but they said this one was more concerning due to the place being to take a lot more people or something.
They're concerned how having a facility here, would increase potential crime or maybe even really bad ones.
It's sad that they're saying this, because mental health really is an issue. But how accurate are my parents concerns? They have concerns about this because they want to live in the area as well eventually.
submitted by baelbd to orangecounty [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 ChiefValue 9 Page GEO DD.
I can't get the pictures to upload to Reddit properly so here is the google doc link with the pictures, otherwise I will copy and paste my investment thesis below.
GEO Group - $8.00 - 10/25/21 - ChiefValue
- GEO has a 4 year AVG operating cash flow per year of $360M and trades at 1x book at a mkt cap of $1B and an EV of $3.64B
- GEO is shedding REIT status to retain cash flow in order to confront debt load
- A quickly growing tech company is encased within GEO in the form of a wholly owned subsidiary which may fetch a premium of $1.15B upon sale
- Rapid deleveraging opportunity
- Declining incarceration rates are misleading and southern border encounters are increasing
- U.S. public prisons are out of date and in need of replacement or repair
- The U.S. Federal Government lacks the facilities required for ICE and USMS
The GEO Group, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). specializes in the ownership, leasing and management of correctional, detention and reentry facilities and the provision of community-based services and youth services in the United States, Australia, South Africa and the United Kingdom. The Company operates in four segments: its U.S. Secure Services; its GEO Care; its International Services and its Facility Construction & Design segments. The Company owns, leases and operates a range of secure facilities including maximum, medium and minimum-security facilities, processing centers, as well as community-based reentry facilities and offers delivery of offender rehabilitation services under its GEO Continuum of Care platform. The GEO Continuum of Care program integrates in-prison programs, which include cognitive behavioral treatment and post-release services. Bear Case and Headwinds:
The prevailing sentiment for the private prison industry is extremely bearish. Legalization of marijuana and other recreational drugs, shorter prison sentences and a current administration that is not supportive of the private prison industry are all reasons for this sentiment. With lawsuits pertaining to the treatment of prisoners and public sentiment being negative, it is also a socially shunned industry.
The Biden administration issued an executive order in January of 2021 to not renew contracts with the private prison companies, which are mainly made up of CoreCivic (CXW) and GEO. The Bureau of Prisons (BOP) makes up 12% of GEO revenue. The BOP has already begun to not renew contracts and revenue losses have already begun to be realized by GEO. GEO had -3.9% revenue in Q2 2021 when compared to Q2 2020 and -7.8% when compared to 2019. The state of California has also banned private prisons from having their contracts renewed or from opening any new prisons. California accounts for >1% of revenue.
U.S. Immigration & Customs Enforcement(ICE) and the United States Marshals Service (USMS) make up a combined 35% and it is possible that they could be the next agencies to start cancelling contracts. It is important to note that ICE and USMS have not yet started cancelling contracts. In the event that they should start, they do not have their own facilities so the government would have to build the necessary facilities which will take time and give these contracts a buffer before they can be canceled.
The largest piece of the bear case is the $2.94B in long term debt.With declining revenue and debt / equity of about 3, the debt can look rather worrisome. Additional unforeseen costs relating to COVID also increased expenses throughout 2020 and into 2021.
The company also has additional risk that lies with lenders not wanting to lend to them anymore for political reasons. S&P has also recently downgraded their bonds to CCC+.
The stock has a current short interest of 22.3%. Crime Rate Trend Reversals, Macroeconomic Changes and Overcrowding:
Inflation is currently at the forefront of the headlines and there seems to be a high probability of moderate to high inflation in the short to medium term. If this were to become reality, GEO is in a good position to handle the inflation for a few reasons:
- GEO has contracts with its food suppliers that are insured in the event of inflation
- GEO owns a large amount of real estate which has historically been one of the top hedges to inflation.
- Debt becomes easier to handle as inflation increases revenue while debt remains the same from the time of issuance.
- GEO receives almost all revenue from governments and provides an essential service.
- Inflation has been proven to have a positive correlation on crime. According to The Journal of Quantitative Criminology, “the estimates yield significant effects of inflation on acquisitive crime rates in cities. City-specific coefficients reveal nontrivial variation across the cities in the significance, size, and impact of inflation on acquisitive crime”
Crime rates have seen a spike in 2020 due to civil unrest and pandemic related issues. 2021 rates are not out yet, but there are multiple credible sources extrapolating city data and predicting a continued rise in violent crime.
Illegal border crossings have jumped to an all time high, according to The New York Times
. Border apprehensions have made a reversal from their low of 13,250 in Feb of 2021 to 22,200 in Oct of 2021. It can be speculated that with the current media frenzy and critiques of the immigration crisis that the government, whether it be Republican or Democrat, will have to start apprehending more illegal immigrants.
The falling incarceration rate in the U.S. is true on the whole, but is skewed by certain states that have enacted policies to not arrest criminals or simply release them - such as California. Some states still have a much higher incarceration rate than the average and this is also where GEO does most of their business. The following is a plot chart of incarceration rates by state:
The states with higher incarceration rates also happen to be predominantly Republican states, of which are in support of private prisons.
Incarceration rates on the whole are not the only thing that matters. More importantly it is about overcrowding. Inmates are only sent to private institutions when the public prisons reach their full capacity. There are fluctuations in the data regarding repairs that impair bed utilization and contracts usually last for multiple years, so the numbers can change in the time that a contract is underway.
What makes the overcrowding more problematic is the out of date prison infrastructure in the U.S. With approximately 460 prisons built through 1980-1999 in various states, it creates a problem both financially and in relation to overcrowding. The financial problems come from frequent repairs and litigation costs due to the danger of inadequate mechanical functionality in a place meant to hold dangerous prisoners. The cost to replace the facilities is very high and with additional public scrutiny on government expenditures, it can be difficult to adequately replace or update these institutions. It creates additional overcrowding because some cells cease to be usable and common areas can be deemed unsafe for both inmates and workers.
The state governments have a few choices to tackle the issue:
- Replace the facilities. GEO and CoreCivic handle almost all new prison construction in the U.S.
- Do nothing. This would lead to such a severe overcrowding issue that the government would have to release prisoners back into society, much to the general population’s dismay
- Continue to use private prisons as they are better equipped and prepared with newer, existing facilities
- Purchase some of GEO’s vacant facilities. Recent sales have gone for 4x, 2x and even 9x book value. The necessity of the prison fetches a high premium.
A similar issue exists with the USMS as they have no facilities for holding detainees. ICE currently has their own facilities but they are overcrowded and numbers continue to suggest that unless funding is made available for ICE, which in the current administration it won’t be, they will continue to require the help of GEO. Changing Corporation Structure:
GEO is currently listed as a REIT or Real Estate Investment Trust. REIT’s are required by law to disperse 90% of their annual taxable income to shareholders through a dividend. There is also the option to pay 80% of the dividend in the form of shares to free up additional cash flow.
However, GEO is following in CoreCivic’s footsteps by shedding the REIT status to utilize more of the cash flow. REIT’s have a very low tax rate, so switching structures would increase the tax rate close to 30%. This number is derived from CoreCivic’s current tax rate. Even with the higher tax rate, GEO would have much more FCF to use to pay down debt. GEO could also stay a REIT and pay its dividend in shares, which would have about the same effect as a structure change. If they choose this path it wouldn’t change the premise because it is non-dilutive to shareholders, it is only dilutive to call option holders. BI Incorporated:
GEO is trading at its book value, meaning if it were to close today the shareholder would be at a wash. This essentially means the future cash flows of the business are being priced in as nil. What is really happening is the market is pricing in a default risk which would make the equity next to worthless. The LARGEST
oversight of the entire bear thesis and most of the internet talk about GEO is BI Incorporated
BI handles the electronic monitoring (EM) and case management part of the business. This is done by ankle bracelet monitors. GEO also has BAC tech used for Alcohol related offenses. These are known as Alternative To Detention (ATD). ATD’s are looked at as the humane, “good guy” way of incarceration. The company is developing AI and gathering data related to these ankle bracelets. In today’s market, these can fetch a good price. BI was acquired in 2011 for $415M. On the usaspending.gov site, the receipts for BI listed in 2011 were worth $38.9M. Almost all revenue comes from the government for BI.
2011 goodwill - 2010 goodwill = Premium.
508-245 = $263M in premium.
415 - 263 = ~$152M book value.
Upon looking at the US spending receipts, BI received $38.9M in revenue.
263/ 38.9 = 6.76x revenue.
GEO acquired BI for 6.76x revenue adjusted for book value. If we apply this multiple to the 2021 revenue of $281.4M it would make BI worth $1.9B in premium. This would imply that GEO’s balance sheet is understated by about $1.9B. Goodwill is not increased as time goes on and sale premium is not accounted for on financial statements. This is the base case for BI. Revenue has increased 7.2x since 2011 and has had an average annual growth rate of 30.75% since 2015. With updated tech and the addition of case management, the premium may even be higher. According to the latest earnings call, the CFO stated that “no current synergies exist between the two businesses and the contracts are completely separate, they even have a separate office in colorado with 300 people.”
The sale of BI would not affect the overarching GEO operations in any way. BI makes up 11% of GEO’s revenue. With a much higher revenue growth rate, improved tech, current tech market highs and possible synergies with other tech firms, BI could realistically fetch 6.76x revenue.
The following graph shows government contract values made out to BI.
The true upside of a BI sale comes from the implications it would have on the company's ability to repay the debt. As a visual,
2021 and 2022 have already been taken care of. 2023 looks to be more than manageable given GEO has 5 quarters to make the payments. If the estimate of 1.9B in premium was used to pay down 2024 debt, they would still have an additional $200M in cash.
BI is the insurance policy for GEO. Should it need to be sold, it can most likely be sold at a reasonable price in quick fashion. Even if it were to sell at 4x revenue, it would still be plenty to eliminate the debt burden. Anything above the original 6.76x multiple is speculation, so the conservative case of 4x should be assumed.
This would further imply a rerate from S&P and Moody’s which would also lead to upside for the share price. With the debt problem all but eradicated, the bear case would be destroyed and the 22.3% of shares shorted would most likely cover. There is “moonshot” potential in an announcement of a BI sale but again, that is speculation so that should not be assumed. Insider Buying:
Former CEO George Zoley, has purchased $13.6M worth of GEO stock from $17 down to $6.75. This amount of insider buying, from the CEO and over such a price range, indicates that he is very confident about GEO’s ability to pay its debt down. Which without the sale of BI would not be such a certainty. He is either confident in the retention of contracts or knows of a major move, either of which is good for shareholders.
The newly appointed CEO of GEO as of June 1st, 2021 is Jose Gordo. He has 20+ years experience in the financial field. With a good track record it is reasonable to assume his expertise will be put to good use. Conclusion:
Factoring in nothing but the BI sale premium at a safe estimate of 4x revenue, GEO would receive about a $9.15 per share gain. True book value would be closer to $17.21 dollars rather than $8.06. The stock is currently trading at $8 and is trading below book value and far below adjusted book value. If GEO was to get rerated at the average REIT Price/Book of 2.11 it would be worth $17, adding BI sale premium, $26.15. So, for a conservative estimation of fair value, the stock should go for $26-$30. There is at least a 300% upside over the next 3 years. Additional Notes:
My estimate of fair value is intentionally leaving out multiplying the BI premium by 2.11 because it is dangerous to speculate with values too far away from their current state, this is the reason that a DCF was not used in this analysis, both to demonstrate the margin of safety and to not speculate in a rapidly changing environment.
As previously mentioned, vacant prisons could go for higher than their book value to state governments which would also imply that book value is understated. The rate for which each vacant property could sell for is difficult to calculate but that additional upside is something that could factor into the equation in the future.
There is also the possibility of a Republican congress and or president by 2024 which would add major upside as well.
This could be a good pair trade with CoreCivic (CXW). While it is GEO’s main competitor, it too is undervalued, and may provide diversification among the industry in the unlikely event GEO underperforms.
I hold a material investment in the issuer's securities and derivatives.
This is not financial advice, you should seek the counsel of your own financial advisor or professional.
submitted by ChiefValue
to BurryEdge [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 mptkala 👜👜 $TRENDY 👠👠 | New Token for E-Commerce TrendyStore | 💎💎 The token you can spend on luxury products 💎💎| Redistribution, BuyBack and Anti-Bot system.
We are almost finished designing an online store where you can anonymously use your $Trendy tokens to purchase authentic designer luxury gifts, watches and hand bags … and the best part, shipped anonymously!
🚀🚀 TOKENOMICS 🚀🚀
Total supply: 1 Trillon
Holders: 200 (You Are Early!!!)
Market Cap: $100,000
Current Price: 0.0000001
Transparent and sincere devs!
🌍🌍 CHANNELS 🌍🌍
Join us on Telegram: @ TrendyToken
Dextools Chart: https://www.dextools.io/app/bsc/pair-explore0xcdb8178699c554aea94a79273b4a0e17589658c9
submitted by mptkala to CryptoMarsShots [link] [comments]
2021.10.27 02:40 ajacqu18 Canyonlands was amazing!
2021.10.27 02:40 shamanshay Grilled chicken, mac and cheese, corn bread, and green beans.
2021.10.27 02:40 Dean10098 The Batman Trailer - Carpenter Brut Style
2021.10.27 02:40 pythonapster [Amazon] Pamapic 12' x 12' x 12' Shade Sails Triangle Sun Shade Sail Canopy for Patio Garden for $8.99 [Deal Price: $8.99]
2021.10.27 02:40 LenaOxton01 gonna be honest
I never excepted this sub to have any traction or any sort of community hence why its bare
eventually I'll set up an actual sub but until then post synthwave/darksynth and metal music and memes.
submitted by LenaOxton01 to SemiDankMetalMemes [link] [comments]